Evidence Review: the role of predators in wader declines [NOV 2025]

The decline of breeding waders over several decades has been due to land-use change (e.g. afforestation, drainage of wetlands) and agricultural intensification (e.g. increased stocking densities). The impact of predators has also been significant, and the predation of wader eggs and chicks is recognised as the main proximate factor limiting wader populations in the UK. Effective interventions to reduce predation are critical if we want to successfully stabilise wader populations.

At least in the short-term and in the majority of cases, this means delivering i) lethal predator control and/or ii) secure mammal exclusion fences around nests or breeding areas. In isolation or in combination, lethal and non-lethal measures to reduce predator impacts can be described as ‘predation management’, and Working for Waders recognises the enormous importance of this work as a tool to support wading birds.

Alongside the urgent delivery of proven predation management techniques and the facility to do this at scale, we agree that further research is also needed on the landscape-scale drivers of high meso-predator densities. Similarly, research into the delivery and effectiveness of predation management outwith game management contexts, and alternative means of addressing predation such as diversionary feeding would be valuable.

Evidence

Our farmland breeding waders are in serious decline across the UK and the population trends for the most widespread species are often worse in Scotland than in the other countries of the UK (Table 1).

Across many wader species, and across much of Europe, there is very strong evidence that in the absence of effective predation management, the vast majority of breeding waders do not produce sufficient young to maintain population stability [2]. The most important reason for this in the UK is high levels of predation on eggs and chicks [3,4,5,6,7]. The drivers of high predation rates may include the expansion of improved grassland, high livestock stocking rates, silage cutting, the expansion of forestry, the release of non-native gamebirds, inappropriate waste disposal, and other forms of habitat fragmentation. Many of these factors have also contributed to reduced extent of wader habitat and the decreased quality of remaining habitat. Predation rates may also be inflated where waders breed in poor quality habitats which make the eggs and young more vulnerable [3,8,9], but predation often remains a problem across habitat types [10].

Simply in terms of the number taken, mammals are the principal predators of eggs (predating nests mostly at night) whilst birds (raptors) are the main predators of chicks [4,6,11]. The individual effect of different predatory species can be difficult to determine – especially regarding the predators of wader chicks, about which less is known – and is highly variable from location to location. The current weight of evidence suggests that fox, (but also others such as badger and stoat) is often among the primary mammalian egg predators, whilst corvids and gulls are the main avian egg predators [3,7,11]. It is not surprising then to find that high densities of breeding waders and/or high rates of breeding success are often still to be found on and around sites where the number of predators is lethally controlled effectively [5,12,13,14,15]. Occasionally, this kind of intervention isn’t needed because predator numbers are relatively low already [16].

The studies mentioned here show that the properly implemented lethal control of foxes, crows and some mustelids can be highly effective at improving wader breeding success which then can turn population decline into growth, and our guidance (here) lays out in more detail the appropriate methods. However, there are alternatives to lethal control, such as some forms of habitat management [17,18] and electric fencing [19,20], which can help increase wader breeding success in certain circumstances. Non-lethal approaches are the only options where the predators are also legally protected species. Our guidance on non-lethal predation control (here) lays out some of the actions that can be taken.

While we have good evidence for the impacts of predation on waders and the effectiveness of predation management in certain contexts (particularly in upland landscapes managed for gamebird shooting), there is still a lot to learn about what works best in other situations - particularly for reducing predation impacts in farmland.

In summary, while the factors driving high predation rates are complex, and there have historically been many factors which have driven wader declines, predation on eggs and chicks is currently the main proximate cause of wader declines across the UK and large areas of Europe.

References

1. Wilson, A.M., Ausden, M. & Milsom, T.P. (2004). Changes in breeding wader populations on lowland wet grasslands in England and Wales: causes and potential solutions. Ibis 146: 32-40.

2. Roodbergen, M., van der Werf, B. & Hötker, H. (2012). Revealing the contributions of reproduction and survival to the Europe-wide decline in meadow birds: review and meta-analysis. Journal for Ornithology 153: 53-74.

3. MacDonald, M.A. & Bolton, M. (2008). Predation on wader nests in Europe. Ibis 150: 54-73.

4. Teunissen, W., Schekkerman, H., Willems, F. & Majoor, F. (2008). Identifying predators of eggs and chicks of Lapwing Vanellus vanellus and Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa in the Netherlands and the importance of predation on wader reproductive output. Ibis 150: 74–85.

5. Fletcher, K., Aebischer, N.J., Baines, D., Foster, R. & Hoodless, A.N. (2010). Changes in breeding success and abundance of ground-nesting moorland birds in relation to the experimental deployment of legal predator control. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 263-272.

6. Mason, L.R., Smart, J. and Drewitt, A.L. (2018). Tracking day and night provides insights into the relative importance of different wader chick predators. Ibis, 160: 71-88.

7. Roos, S., Smart, J., Gibbons, D.W. & Wilson, J.D. (2018). A review of predation as a limiting factor for bird populations in mesopredator-rich landscapes: a case study of the UK. Biological Reviews 93: 1915-1937.

8. Kentie, R., Both, C., Hooijmeijer, J.C.E.W. & Piersma, T. (2015). Management of modern agricultural landscapes increases nest predation rates in Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa. Ibis 157: 614-625.

9. Baines, D. (1990). The Roles of Predation, Food and Agricultural Practice in Determining the Breeding Success of the Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus) on Upland Grasslands. Journal of Animal Ecology, 59: 915–929.

10. Baines, D., Fletcher, K., Hesford, N., Newborn, D. & Richardson, M. (2023). Lethal predator control on UK moorland is associated with high breeding success of curlew, a globally near-threatened wader. European Journal of Wildlife Research 69: 6.

11. Barton, M.G., Conway, G.J., Henderson, I.G., Baddams, J., Balchin, C.S., Brides, K., Butcher, N., Cameron, T.C., Davis, T., Eyre, J., Foster, R., Gornall, D., Kallamballi, N.K., Laurie, P., Nixon, A., Noyes, P., Parish, D.M.B., Samson, L., Smart, J., Wilde, N., Wright, M.A. and Dolman, P.M. (2025). Meta-analysis of predator identity in nest-camera studies in the British Islands. Ibis. https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.13436.

12. Newey, S., Mustin, K., Bryce, R., Fielding, D., Redpath, S., Bunnefeld, N., Daniel, B. & Irvine, R.J. (2016). Impact of management on avian communities in the Scottish Highlands. PLoS ONE 11(5): e0155473. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0155473.

13. Littlewood N.A., Mason T.H.E., Hughes M., Jaques R., Whittingham M.J., Willis S.G. (2019). The influence of different aspects of grouse moorland management on nontarget bird assemblages. Ecology & Evolution 9: 11089–11101.

14. Ludwig, S.C., Roos, S. & Baines, D. (2019). Responses of breeding waders to restoration of grouse management on a moor in South-West Scotland. Journal of Ornithology 160: 789–797.

15. Calladine, J., Border, J., O’Connell, P. & Wilson, M. (2022). Modelling important areas for breeding waders as a tool to target conservation and minimise conflicts with land use change. Journal for Nature Conservation 70: 126267.

16. Bolton, M., Tyler, G., Smith, K., & Bamford, R. (2007). The impact of predator control on lapwing Vanellus vanellus breeding success on wet grassland nature reserves. Journal of Applied Ecology 44: 534–544.

17. Møller, A.P., Thorup, O. and Laursen, K. (2018). Predation and nutrients drive population declines in breeding waders. Ecological Applications 28: 1292-1301.

18. Laidlaw, R.A., J. Smart, H. Ewing, S.E. Franks, H. Belting, L. Donaldson, G.M. Hilton, N. Hiscock, A.N. Hoodless, B. Hughes, N.S. Jarrett, R. Kentie, E. Kleyheeg, R. Lee, M. Roodbergen, D.M. Scott, M.J. Short, E.E. Syroechkovskiy, W. Teunissen, H. Ward, G. White & J.A. Gill. (2021). Predator management for breeding waders: a review of current evidence and priority knowledge gaps. Wader Study 127: 44–55.

19. Malpas, L.R., Kennerley, R.J., Hirons, G.J.M, Sheldon, R.D., Ausden, M. Gilbert, J.C. & Smart, J. (2013). The use of predator-exclusion fencing as a management tool improves the breeding success of waders on lowland wet grassland. Journal for Nature Conservation 21: 37-47.

20. Verhoeven, M.A., Jelle Loonstra, A.H., Pringle, T., Kaspersma, W., Whiffin, M., McBride, A.D., Sjoerdsma, P., Roodhart, C., Burgess, M.D., Piersma, T., & Smart, J. (2022). Do ditch-side electric fences improve the breeding productivity of ground-nesting waders? Ecological Solutions and Evidence, 3, e12143.